Whitcomb: On to Infrastructure; Get Married, Mayor Elorza; Defending Ukraine
Monday, January 01, 2018
“Now winter downs the dying of the year,
And night is all a settlement of snow;
From the soft street the rooms of houses show
GET THE LATEST BREAKING NEWS HERE -- SIGN UP FOR GOLOCAL FREE DAILY EBLASTA gathered light, a shapen atmosphere,
Like frozen-over lakes whose ice is thin
And still allows some stirring down within.’’
-- From “Year’s End,’’ by Richard Wilbur
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In the 2016 campaign and before Donald Trump commendably discussed the need to fix America’s decayed infrastructure, whose crumbling is all too apparent in New York City, whence he comes. He and others in the political class in Washington have suggested that $1 trillion might need to be spent to get things up to something approaching the level of other Western nations. Now that the Republicans have gotten their tax bill enacted, Trump and congressional luminaries have suggested that a big infrastructure bill should be next.
The President said last August: “No longer will we allow the infrastructure of our magnificent country to crumble and decay.’’
But with the federal budget deficit about to swell even more with the tax law and with the two major parties more suspicious of each other than ever, even doing something as seemingly bipartisan-sounding as infrastructure repair will be tough. One of the issues will be how much of any such law would involve public money and how much private- sector investment. Trump likes public-private deals, but that can raise the total cost. (See the latest plans for fixing part of Route 95 in Providence.) The possibilities for conflicts of interest and out-and-out corruption are large, but America must address its infrastructure crisis.
Congress and the president in 2017 would have done far more good for the economy, in job creation and in making America more competitive, if they had focused from the start on a responsibly financed infrastructure bill instead of on a tax bill to please their big donors.
Meanwhile, as Common Good, the nonprofit run by my friend Philip K. Howard, has argued, the almost comically slow approval process for infrastructure projects, such as replacing superannuated bridges, must be speeded up. Common Good has estimated that large infrastructure projects require a far too long six years to start. The culprits include fear of lawsuits and very broad and complicated environmental reviews.
Trump, for his part, has commendably directed federal agencies to speed up things through better coordination of environmental impact reviews.
Unlike with tax laws and the Affordable Care Act, Republicans and Democratic leaders both generally agree that a huge national infrastructure program is needed. And Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has noted that the Senate, with the election of Democrat Doug Jones as the new U.S. senator from Alabama, will require more bipartisanship to get things done. Perhaps even in a congressional-election year, that bipartisanship could result in a big infrastructure program, even if it means raising the gasoline tax to help responsibly pay for it. And both parties could claim credit. Or, as Ronald Reagan liked to say:
“There is no limit to the amount of good you can do if you don't care who gets the credit.”
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It’s too bad that the once very respectable and nonpartisan WJAR-TV, in Providence, has been turned into a strident right-wing propaganda organ by its owner Sinclair Broadcast Group, which is very close to Donald Trump. Sinclair is becoming the Fox News of radio.
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It was gratifying to hear that the U.S. will finally supply Ukraine with defensive weapons – Javelin anti-tank missiles and sniper rifles -- to better protect itself in Russia’s ongoing war/invasion in eastern Ukraine. The Obama administration and the early Trump administration were too weak in helping this democracy – albeit a very flawed one – defend itself from its expansionist neighbor to the east.
The psychodynamics of the administration’s Ukraine move and a recent Trump administration report declaring the need to more forcefully confront Russian and Chinese aggression and threats thereof are intriguing since Trump has been famously loath to say negative stuff about the Russian dictator, Vladimir Putin. It often seems that there are two sets of Trump administration foreign policies – one consisting of the views of the GOP foreign-policy establishment and the other a chaotic stew of Trump tweets.
Anyway, dictators respect physical force above all.
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I don’t agree with some of the positions that Nikki Haley enunciates as U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, especially her bashing of the U.N., which will not help us over the long haul. (That doesn’t mean that I’m not well aware of the hypocrisies and other pathologies of the world body. But we still need it.) Still, it should be said that Ms. Haley, a former GOP governor of South Carolina, has shown herself to be a very articulate, savvy and confident diplomat, a very fast learner of foreign-policy issues and a highly competent deal maker.
So confident is she that she has ignored Trump’s tendency to make nice with Putin and roundly denounced the Putin regime: “We cannot trust Russia. We should never trust Russia.’’
She’d be a very plausible replacement for Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and might well end up as president.
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Earthquake zone? You’d probably not think of New England as a particularly geologically active place, but we do get mild earthquakes from time to time. But as it turns out, geologists have found that much of the region is atop a rising mass of warm rock! As the National Geographic reported, it’s “a smaller, slower version of the magma pockets under well-known volcanic zones.’’
This suggests that we may be more vulnerable to major quakes than we thought.
The warm rock is centered beneath central Vermont, western New Hampshire, and western Massachusetts. Don’t expect a volcanic eruption any time soon, but things could get shakier than expected.
SEE THE INTERVIEW THIS WEEK ON GOLOCAL LIVE WITH THE WARM ROCK EXPERT
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New England’s extreme cold in the past few days has led to surges in the price of natural gas, which will, in turn, boost electricity rates. That ought to remind New England how much we need to develop alternative sources of power.
Perhaps Associate Prof. Geoffrey Cowles, of UMass Dartmouth, an oceanographer, and his colleague, Princeton engineering Prof. Luigi Martinelli, can help. The National Science Foundation has awarded them a $300,000 grant to work in cooperation with Ocean Renewable Power Co., to assess the performance of tidal-energy turbines and their interactions with the marine environment. This might or might not become an important energy source for New England; it certainly deserves investigation. The more home-grown energy the better.
I ran into a neighbor the other week a who had recently put solar panels on one side of the roof. It cost $10,000 but now he and his wife have virtually no electric bill. They can run electric heaters to their heart’s content. Pretty alluring the past few days….
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Obviously, this is a very personal matter but I can’t help saying that I wish that Providence Mayor Jorge Elorza would marry his girlfriend Stephanie Gonzalez, with whom he is having a baby. Marriage is obviously no panacea for society’s ills but the fact is the duties associated with the ancient institution are stabilizing forces for individuals and society, especially because they help to legally protect children. And parents’ failure to wed is correlated with high poverty rates, crime, and other social dysfunction.
You can see the effects of the “illegitimacy’’ epidemic around America, especially in inner cities and in poor rural areas. I wish that the mayor and his girlfriend would set a good example for the citizenry –especially young people – and get married. You could look at marriage as the smallest unit of government. Without it, you’re spawning anarchy.
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Emily Badger had an important story in the Dec. 24 New York Times entitled (in the print edition) “The Megacity, Untethered: Urban Giants are going global but losing their connections with smaller neighbors’’.
It basically says that such big globalized high-tech cities as Boston, San Francisco, and Seattle no longer need as much their old connections with manufacturing centers, both nearby or elsewhere in America. She writes:
“The companies that now drive the Bay Area’s soaring wealth — and that represent part of the American economy that’s booming — don’t need these communities in the same way. Google’s {which also has a large operation in Cambridge/Boston} digital products don’t have a physical supply chain. Facebook doesn’t have dispersed manufacturers. Apple, which does make tangible things, now primarily makes them overseas.’’
“A changing economy has been good to the {San Francisco} region, and to a number of other predominantly coastal metros like New York, Boston and Seattle. But economists and geographers are now questioning what the nature of their success means for the rest of the country. What happens to America’s manufacturing heartland when Silicon Valley turns to China? Where do former mill and mining towns fit in when big cities shift to digital work? How does upstate New York benefit when New York City increases business with Tokyo?’’
So how do the old manufacturing cities of, for example, Worcester and Providence deal with this problem? They become lower-cost extensions of Greater Boston. That, like that powerhouse, they have some very good universities to help staff companies with technological and other highly trained people is a major strength. They’re better positioned to do 21stCentury work than are most old American mid-sized cities. Providence and Worcester should embrace Boston, not try to compete with it.
To read The Times’s piece, please hit this link:
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Those depressed about the Rhode Island economy might feel better if they looked at the big building projects underway in downtown Providence. Parts of the cityscape are being transformed near the train station and the Rhode Island School of Design.
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Wouldn’t it be nice if Brown University put its planned big new performance center on the Providence riverfront as a sort of Sydney Opera House instead of building it in a residential area and having to raze or move some old houses to do so.
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I used to like eating grilled octopus. But no more after having read Sy Montgomery’s book The Soul of an Octopus: A Surprising Exploration into the Wonder of Consciousness no more.
Ms. Montgomery, after having done research at the New England Aquarium, in Boston, convincingly describes the octopus as a very complex, intelligent and emotional creature and one that makes sensitive connections with humans. I think that I’ll start confining my seafood consumption to clams, mussels, and oysters.
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A big tax issue in New England is federal tax credits for developers of historic properties. Political leaders and developers had worried that an element of the federal Historic Tax Credit (HTC) program that lets developers offset 20 percent of approved historic rehabilitation projects against tax liabilities would be eliminated. But as The Boston Guardian (which gets most of its revenue from real-estate ads) reported, the 20 percent rule remains, although the new law has the credits payout over five years instead of in the first year of development.
These credits have been a very big deal in Boston and Providence, with their riches of old commercial buildings. In the former, $2 billion worth of projects took advantage of the program from 2011-2016. The most famous beneficiaries – the owners of Fenway Park!
More problematic in the tax law is that the doubling of the standard deduction to $12,000 for single filers and $24,000 for joint filers will also certainly cut charitable giving because fewer people will itemize deductions. And the doubling of the amount in an estate that’s estate-tax-free to $22 million reduces rich people’s incentive to make donations to cut their estate taxes.
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Why do so many New England drivers refuse to slow down on ice-covered roads?
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Correction and/or clarification: In early editions of last week’s “Digital Diary,’’ I cited one estimate that Donald Trump and his enterprises would save $1 billion in the new tax law. In fact, that estimate included, among other things, abolition of the estate tax, which didn’t happen after all, though the amount shielded from the levy from it has been doubled, to $22 million from $11 million. A friend (and former chief financial officer at big companies) emailed me to complain. I thank him.
What seems clear to me is that the very complex, closely held and secretive Trump Organization will do very well from the tax bill, including changes involving “pass-through’’ income and lovely new tax breaks for real-estate operators, of all people.
New York City real-estate accountant Kenneth Weissenberg told Forbes:
"You've given the majority of his income a tax break. He's benefiting, not just from the direct tax benefits but the increase in the value of his holdings."
In any event, it will take months to figure out all these changes. That Trump, who claims to be a multibillionaire, refuses (as is his right) to release his tax returns makes understanding how much he and his family will gain from the new law particularly daunting. Perhaps we’ll know a lot more by April 15.
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Happy New Year! A lot of people still make New Year’s resolutions. But it’s probably more effective to make a list of resolutions – things to do and how to act – every morning to cover just that day. Harder to forget or ignore.
First resolution: Buy one of those full-spectrum light boxes to combat seasonal affective disorder (SAD). I did.
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