Great Falls residents quiz China expert on trade war's local impact
Kristen Inbody
- Bringing the U to You series: February 7 - "Screen Time and Green Time: Effects of Increased Technology on Children's Development," Febuary 21 - "Mountaineering and Science: How Alpinism Fundamentally Transformed Scientific Research in the 19th Century," March 7 - "What's for Dinner? Rethinking the Dinner Table"
As a new autocrat grabs power, the Chinese are learning that the norms that restrained leaders for the last 40 years were weaker than they thought
Chinese President Xi Jinping is overturning China's limits on power such as abolishing term limits.
And, he's fostered a nationalism that will have major impacts on human rights, trade and even Montana agriculture.
China expert Terry Weidner, a University of Montana emeritus professor, kicked off the annual four-part Bringing the U to You lecture series, a project of University of Montana and Montana State University alumni. The full house at Heritage Hall at Great Falls College MSU zeroed in on trade issues in questions for the professor.
President Donald Trump is finally standing up to China's unfair trade practices. Where the president has erred is going it alone, Weldner said.
"It would have made so much sense to unite as a group instead of (ticking) off all the countries with the same trade issues by leveling tariffs against our allies," he said.
It's increasingly difficult for American companies to compete in the Chinese market, and some big-name companies are withdrawing, he said.
Foreign companies don't have a level playing field in China. They've been required to take on Chinese partners, and they're competing against Chinese companies that are backed by the Chinese government.
On Monday, the US charged a Chinese telecom company and one of its executives with 23 felony charges, alleging the company defrauded banks, stole trade secrets and tried to obstruct justice.
With globalism, the fact is the United States needs China to be economically healthy — and China needs the United States to be economically healthy, too. It's not a zero-sum game.
"We're all in this together," Weidner said.
Former President Barack Obama pledged a pivot to Asia but didn't accomplish much, Weidner said.
The Trans-Pacific Partnership, a now-defunct proposed trade agreement among Pacific countries including the United States, was the last hope for U.S. strength in the Pacific — something other countries have been begging for as China flexes economic and military muscle in the region, Weidner said.
More from Foreign Policy magazine: The Unfinished Legacy of Obama’s Pivot to Asia
China's growth has slowed. The country's smaller businesses have tremendous debt. The middle class is fighting back against pollution. Chinese manufacturing can't compete with its cheaper neighbors, and the country is focusing on growing its own consumer culture. A staggering number of young people come into the job market every year.
Weidner expects China will absorb the trade war blows and wait out Trump, expecting they'll get a better deal with whoever comes next. They're nervous about the trade war but expect it will continue to hit American companies harder.
"They will suck it up to flip off the U.S. They're angry," he said.
China is Montana's No. 3 export market after Canada and Japan, accounting for $181 million.
More:Daines to Trump: re-engage with China, start new TPP negotiations
Pacific trade deal and Montana
How tariff's are hurting Montana's economy
The current political climate also is having a major impact on foreign students, which boosted universities' incomes and had a positive foreign policy impact for the United States.
"Students don't feel welcome in the U.S., so they're going to other countries," he said.
More:Duke professor sparks online outrage after telling Chinese students to only speak English
When he taught Chinese students at the University of Montana, Weidner would always start by criticizing problems in the United States and then move onto criticizing problems in China.
They were open to the critique of issues in their country — but no more. Rising nationalism has made Chinese people much less tolerant of criticism.
At the same time, Xi Jinping is restricting the Internet in ways no one had thought was possible before. Many social media sites, such as Facebook, are banned. There are no anonymous commenting of IP addresses. A million-strong web police department monitors possible descent. He even banned Winnie the Pooh after some made unflattering comparisons with his physique and the bear's.
The United States once kept China in check on human rights issues with constant pressure. Then came the Iraq/Afghanistan wars. When China came back with "how is that worse than what you're doing" and the U.S. leadership shrugged and conceded the point, Weidner said.
Now peaceful dissent in China is considered terrorism, and there's been a brutal crackdown on China's Uighur Muslim minority.
Weldner likened the Uighur's treatment to the plight of Native Americans during American expansion. Nomads are being driven off their land, their children are sent to boarding schools and their Ramadan feasts are banned. Propaganda posters describe their traditional women's garb as ugly and modern attire as beautiful.
They'll be "civilized," China has decided, "even if it kills them."
A well-intentioned development program directed money to the area, but that money drew outsiders to the Uighur communities and rendered them a minority. As many as a million are in re-education camps. Others are forced into city apartments, where they're easier to control but have nothing to do but watch TV all day.
Xi Jinping also has launched the largest anti-corruption campaign in world history in China, but even a man who is assuming the role of a dictator can't easily fix ingrained practices that have long benefited those in power — while costing the country billions.
Next up in the Bringing the U to You series:
•February 7: "Screen Time and Green Time: Effects of Increased Technology on Children's Development" with Rachel Severson, UM director of the Minds Lab
•February 21: "Mountaineering and Science: How Alpinism Fundamentally Transformed Scientific Research in the 19th Century" with Michael Reidy from MSU's Department of History and Philosophy
•March 7: "What's for Dinner? Rethinking the Dinner Table" with Florence Dunkel, an MSU pioneer in insect cuisine and in the use of alternatives to chemical pesticides.
— Lectures are 7-9 p.m. at Great Falls College MSU Heritage Hall. Tickets are $10 at the door or $25 for the entire series, available at Kaufman's and Leslie's Hallmark. Student tickets are $5 a lecture.